In the last five years we have added 783 students to the Arlington Public Schools. Currently we have 5659 students in the Arlington Public School system. We are projected to add an additional 500 students over the next five years, with an additional 150 students expected in the subsequent five years. While this increase is currently hitting the elementary and middle school level, it is expected to hit the High School soon.
2006 is the first year when we first see larger kindergarten class sizes (442 compared to 391 the previous year). These students are our current 10th graders. Over the last three years kindergarten classes have averaged 518 students, while our High School graduation classes have averaged 336 students. The “surge” is expected to be our new normal.
Here is a chart to show our actual and projected enrollment growth since 2005. The 2005, 2010 and 2015 numbers reflect actual building-level enrollment numbers; the 2020 and 2025 numbers are forecasts based on the updated numbers provided by Dr. McKibben.
Focusing just on elementary school growth, here is the actual and projected growth at our seven elementary schools:
As you can see Bishop and Stratton are projected to have modest growth over the next ten years (note that Bishop is currently overcrowded), Brackett, Dalin and Peirce are projected to have modest declines over the next ten years (note that Brackett and Dalin are currently overcrowded), and Hardy and Thompson are projected to have large increases over the next ten years (note that Thompson is currently overcrowded and Hardy will soon be overcrowded).
At the elementary school level the East Arlington schools Thompson and Hardy are our biggest concerns. Thompson and Hardy are projected to have four classes at each grade level for the foreseeable future, which means that Thomson would need five additional classrooms and Hardy would need three additional classrooms to house those students. Here is the anticipated classroom need in E. Arlington over the next 4 years.
- 2 classrooms in 2016/17 (modulars are being planned for Thompson)
- 3 additional classrooms in 2017/18 (total of 4 needed at Thompson and 1 at Hardy)
- 1 additional classrooms in 2018/19 (total of 4 needed at Thompson and 2 at Hardy)
- 2 additional classrooms in 2019/20 (total of 5 needed at Thompson and 3 at Hardy)